Miami-Dade’s Unexpected Republican Surge in Early and Mail-In Voting

Republican elephant emblem on American flag background.

Miami-Dade County, once a Democratic stronghold, has flipped red in early and mail-in voting, signaling a seismic shift in Florida’s political landscape.

Trump could be set to win the popular vote, at this rate.

At a Glance

  • Republicans lead in Miami-Dade’s combined early and mail-in voting with 44.20%, compared to Democrats’ 35.54%
  • GOP dominates early in-person voting statewide with 54.14%, while Democrats lead in mail-in ballots with 42.29%
  • Republicans now have over one million more registered voters than Democrats in Florida
  • Florida is no longer considered a battleground state due to growing Republican influence

Miami-Dade’s Republican Surge

In a stunning reversal of political fortunes, Miami-Dade County, long considered a Democratic bastion, has shifted dramatically towards the Republican Party in early and mail-in voting. This change mirrors a broader trend across Florida, where Republicans have surpassed Democrats in voter registration by over a million. The implications of this shift are profound, potentially redefining Florida’s status as a swing state and solidifying its position as a Republican stronghold.

The numbers tell a compelling story: Republicans now lead with 44.20 percent of the combined early and mail-in votes in Miami-Dade, compared to 35.54 percent for Democrats. This advantage is even more pronounced in early in-person voting, where Republicans hold a staggering 17.1% lead over their Democratic counterparts. While Democrats maintain a 13.2% edge in mail-in votes, the overall trend points to a significant realignment of political preferences in this crucial county.

Statewide Republican Dominance

The shift in Miami-Dade is not an isolated phenomenon. Across Florida, Republicans have taken a commanding lead in early voting, with 54.14% of early in-person votes compared to the Democrats’ 26.99%. This surge in Republican turnout has flipped the script on traditional voting patterns, where Democrats typically lead in early voting.

“At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout. These early numbers make it clear that Florida Republicans are energized to vote,” Republican Party Chair Evan Power said.

The Republican surge is particularly noteworthy given that Democrats initially led in 66 of 67 counties with a 6% turnout lead. However, by the end of the first day of early voting, Republicans had overtaken them, demonstrating a level of enthusiasm and organization that has caught many political observers off guard.

Implications for Florida’s Political Future

The shift in Miami-Dade and across Florida has far-reaching implications for the state’s political landscape. With Republicans now boasting over one million more registered voters than Democrats, a trend that began in November 2021, Florida is no longer considered a battleground state in the current election cycle. This transformation is largely attributed to Republican dominance and the enduring influence of former President Trump.

While it’s important to note that early voting trends don’t always predict final outcomes, the scale and consistency of the Republican advantage in Florida suggest a significant realignment. This shift is likely to impact not only the upcoming elections but also future policy decisions and political strategies in the state.

Trump is breaking records and we haven’t even finished voting, yet.