Trump Sees Great Polls. Pollsters See Something Else

President Trump is leaning on “great poll numbers” even as multiple national trackers show his approval near the lowest point of his second term.

Quick Take

Trump’s approval has stayed in the high 30s or low 40s, not the 50s.
Several major polls show new second-term lows for his job approval.
Some averages still put him above 38%, which leaves room for spin.
The broader trend across pollsters points down, not up.

Polling Trend Points Down

National polling in 2026 shows President Trump with approval ratings clustered in the mid-30s to low-40s. Reuters/Ipsos found him at 34% in late April, Pew Research said he stood at 34% in early May, and Gallup later reported 36%, the lowest of his second term. Other trackers, including NBC News, Quinnipiac, and Economist/YouGov, showed similar weakness across the same period.

That pattern matters because it explains how Trump can still talk as if the numbers are strong. A tracking average from Nate Silver’s Bulletin put him at 38.2% approval and 58.8% disapproval in late July, while a RealClearPolitics-style average reported by USA Today showed 40.3% approve and 57.3% disapprove in June. Those numbers are not collapse territory, but they are far from “great” by any normal standard.

Why Trump Can Still Claim Strength

Trump’s team can point to the fact that not every survey lands in the low 30s. Reuters/Ipsos reported 35% approval in June, Gallup showed 36%, and some other polls sat closer to 37% or 38%. In a polarized country, that gives room for a political argument that a large, loyal base still backs him, even when the national topline is weak. But that is a spin argument, not evidence of a broad rebound.

There is also real variation inside the polling. USA Today reported that Reuters/Ipsos found Trump still at 50% approval among rural Americans in June, even as his overall numbers fell. That helps explain the gap between the national story and the message Trump wants to sell. Support among core voters can stay solid while the wider electorate turns colder on the economy, foreign policy, and day-to-day governing.

Media Framing Adds Pressure

Reporters and pollsters have increasingly described Trump’s numbers as the lowest of his second term or the lowest ever in a series. Reuters, Gallup, Pew, Forbes, and Newsweek all used that language in separate reports. When several independent firms keep landing in the same range, it becomes harder to dismiss the trend as a one-off or a bad sample. For voters, the headline is simple: the decline is broad, persistent, and well documented.

https://twitter.com/family_inmate/status/2086327036042199510

Still, the record also shows why the fight over “great” polls keeps going. Approval levels in the high 30s can look usable to a hard-core political movement, especially when rival voters are even more hostile. But the underlying data do not show a strong president riding high with the public. They show a president whose support has slipped, whose disapproval is near 60%, and whose best defense is selective math, not a turnaround.